Sunday, November 20, 2016

POTUS Election - Electoral College

There are 231,566,622 eligible voters in the United States. 135,135,298 voters cast their ballots in this year’s presidential election.
 
Hillary Clinton received 63,390,669 votes. Donald Trump received 61,820,845 votes. That means Hillary Clinton received 1.5 million more popular votes than Trump. So logic says since Clinton received more popular votes, she should be declared as the winner. Right?
 
Wrong.  United States always does things differently. Just like Rajnikanth’s “en vazhi thani vazhi” (my path is a unique/separate path).
 
U.S. President is not elected by popular votes. There is something called “Electoral College Vote”. Total number of electoral college votes are 538. Whoever gets 270 electoral college votes will be declared the winner. Electoral College Votes are distributed to each state based on their population. In fact it is the number of Senators plus the number of House of Representatives for each state. Since California is the most populous state, it gets 55 votes. New York 29. Texas 38. Florida 29. Montana 3. North Dakota 3. And so on and so forth.
 
In a given state, if a candidate wins the popular vote, he/she gets all the electoral college votes. It is winner take all. Even if the candidate wins by one popular vote, he/she gets all the electoral college votes.
 
For example, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in California. Therefore, she got all the 55 electoral college votes. Same way, Trump won the popular vote in Florida. So he got all the 29 electoral college votes. Under this counting rule, Trump has 290 electoral college votes against a needed 270 votes. Therefore, he is declared as the winner. Hillary has got only 228 electoral college votes. (Two states have not declared results. Too close to call.)
 
How come Clinton won the popular vote and did not win the electoral college vote? It is because which ever states Clinton won, she won by a huge margin of popular votes. Which ever states Trump won, he  won by a narrow margin of popular votes.  But Trump won more states than Clinton.
 
Therefore popular vote does not matter in electing the President of the United States. It is the electoral college votes that count. And, there are 540 electoral college voters.
 
OK. How these electoral college voters are selected? Before the start of the election, each candidate will give a list of names of electoral college voters of their choice (from their own party) for each state. (In some states, it is thru intra-party election.). It is a package deal. When you vote for a candidate for President, you automatically vote for his /her choice of Vice President and his/her choice of electoral college voters.
 
They will assemble on December 19 and vote for the candidate to be President of the United States.  Usually, they don’t change their votes.  All of Trump’s electoral college votes will vote for Trump.  Same for Clinton.
A funny thing is happening this year.  Die hard Clinton fanatics are asking Trump’s electoral college voters not to vote for him on December 19.   I think this is their desperate attempt.  You fought hard.  You lost. Just let it go and get ready for 2020.  When Obama was elected in 2008, many white people did not like that.  But they never asked Obama’s electoral college voters not to vote for him.
Many people,  including Mr. Trump, do not like this electoral college system.  Unless they make a constitutional amendment, it is here to stay.  It is not that easy to make a constitutional amendment in the United States.
Why the founding fathers established an electoral college system to pick the President of the United States as opposed to a direct popular vote?  That is another long confusing story.  My head swirls.
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30 comments:

  1. Vineeta YashswiNovember 21, 2016 at 1:20 AM

    Moral of the story is that TRUMP is now president... :)

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    1. SGNovember 21, 2016 at 7:52 AM

      Thanks for your comments Vineeta. Yes, he will be on January 20, 2017.

      Delete
  2. SandhyaNovember 21, 2016 at 4:36 AM

    I wonder how the Republican and Democratic party selected Trump and Hillary as their candidate. Both are not sincere people...They won't do anything good for America. Well..I feel so. Sometimes feel scary. Trump's talks are irresponsible. But there is no other go. The whole world should wait and see. America's election will affect the whole world.

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    1. SGNovember 21, 2016 at 7:59 AM

      Thanks for your comments Sandhya. The American people voted for him. If he is not good to America, then they deserve it. On the international scene, the Chinese President is mad at Trump. So Trump must be saying/doing something good for USA. Since he is now the American President, his responsibility is to bring jobs to Bangor, Maine, and not to Bangalore, India.

      Delete
    2. SandhyaNovember 21, 2016 at 8:13 AM

      Yes, I agree that more jobs should be for Americans. Just hope that Indians, Chinese, African Americans, Spanish people who had been there for 15-20 years are nearly Americans, aren't they? Hope their jobs are safe. And I have heard/read that he likes Indians!

      Delete
    3. SGNovember 21, 2016 at 8:35 AM

      Thanks for your comments Sandhya. Trump is against illegal immigrants and not against those who immigrated legally. I have read he likes India. I have even read that he wants the Indian students in American universities to stay here permanently after finishing their studies.

      Delete
    4. SandhyaNovember 21, 2016 at 8:22 PM

      Good! I didn't know/read about this! Thank you! Many children in our family have nearly settled down there happily! Plus and minus points are there, for them and the parents, still, they are in good jobs they like and used to that life now.

      Delete
    5. KKNovember 21, 2016 at 9:04 PM

      This fact, that Trump is only against illegal immigrants and not all immigrants needs to be told to more and more people. The overall vibe, at least in Punjab/Haryana/Delhi is that he is against any and all kinds of immigration, period.

      Right now, the perception is that Trump is anti immigrant. Later on, when he only acts against illegal immigrants, he can be blamed for deviating from his "policy".

      I guess this is one of the side effects of being in the public eye. Looks like this one time, being ignored is better than being judged :-)

      Delete
  3. DeeNovember 21, 2016 at 9:42 AM

    Informative piece SG, thank you for enlightening us, well written as always.

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    1. SGNovember 21, 2016 at 10:29 AM

      Thanks for your comments Dee. I am glad you liked this post.

      Delete
  4. KParthasarathiNovember 21, 2016 at 12:04 PM

    Thank you for explaining clearly about the president's election.I would be interested to know your thoughts on the question you raised in the last para. Perhaps one reason could be to ensure a say for the less populated states.The heavily populated states have already more electoral votes based on population.Why again give them the edge through popular votes.

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    1. SGNovember 22, 2016 at 10:32 AM

      Thanks for your comments Mr. KP. You have correctly stated one of the reasons. Another reason is to create a buffer between the population and the selection of a President. This may not be easily understood today. The founding fathers thought a tyrant could easily manipulate public opinion and come to power.

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  5. Destination InfinityNovember 21, 2016 at 6:56 PM

    I think this is similar to what is here. A party can get a lot of votes but the result is declared based on the no. of seats won. I think DMK got a good share of votes (30%+ if I remember) in a previous election but they got a very few seats because AIADMK had the majority in most constituencies.

    But yeah, the second part of the Electoral College voting seems to be unique to the US. Let's see if history is created this time by cross-voting ;)

    Destination Infinity

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    1. SGNovember 22, 2016 at 10:33 AM

      Thanks for your comments Rajesh. You have the near perfect example of electoral college system in India.

      Delete
  6. KKNovember 21, 2016 at 9:06 PM

    Thank you SG for explaining the whole thing.

    I knew about the process in bits and pieces. But you consolidated it and made it all come together in a "tubelight" moment!

    No pressure, but what are you going to explain next?

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    1. SGNovember 22, 2016 at 10:40 AM

      Thanks for your comments Karunesh. I am glad you liked this post. What am I going to explain next? It is your choice. Pick one. My life history, OR How to make lot of money playing the options market, OR Quantum Physics. (Please don't pick quantum physics. I have no idea.)

      Delete
    2. DeeNovember 22, 2016 at 5:47 PM

      Your Life History

      Delete
    3. SGNovember 22, 2016 at 6:19 PM

      Thanks for your comments Dee. I will quote the famous words by Jackie Gleason. "One of these days".

      Delete
    4. KKNovember 28, 2016 at 12:48 AM

      You have to explain your life history.

      One can learn to play the options market elsewhere. And even if you could explain Quantum Physics, I doubt I could understand it.

      Also, you have to do it within 2016.

      No pressure, but within 2016 :P

      Delete
    5. SGNovember 28, 2016 at 8:35 AM

      Thanks Karunesh. HaHaHa. One of these days.

      Delete
  7. Alok singhalNovember 22, 2016 at 11:42 AM

    I am keeping my fingers crossed for Dec 19 when electoral college actually chooses US President...but I know they won't go against the states' choice! God bless America!

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    1. SGNovember 22, 2016 at 2:24 PM

      Thanks for your comments Alok. I don't think there will be a cross voting. In the unlikely event of Trump losing, there will be riots in the streets of USA. But it will not happen.

      Delete
  8. Shilpa GargNovember 23, 2016 at 9:53 AM

    This is an insightful post about the US presidential elections. Now I understand, how they lost and won! Thanks for enlightening us, SG :)

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    1. SGNovember 23, 2016 at 10:16 AM

      Thanks for your comments Shilpa. I am glad you liked this post.

      Delete
  9. rudraprayagaNovember 23, 2016 at 11:40 PM

    O!That is it.I had bitten the corners of the voting system there.Now only I got centre part.You have elaborated in detail,SG.Thank you.Somewhat like India where the number of popular votes are not counted.The number of M.P's elected are taken into account to declare a party's majority.

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    1. SGNovember 24, 2016 at 12:17 AM

      Thanks for your comments Sarala. You and Rajesh said it perfectly what I was struggling to say. It is not the number of votes. It is the number of MPs.

      Delete
  10. AshaNovember 25, 2016 at 1:56 AM

    Never knew so much information about US elections....Thank you SG!

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    1. SGNovember 28, 2016 at 8:36 AM

      Thanks Asha. I am glad you liked this post.

      Delete
  11. Sindhu Devi KNovember 27, 2016 at 8:11 AM

    Hmmm... it is tricky. Thanks SG for making us understand the concept :-)
    TC, keep smiling :-)

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    1. SGNovember 28, 2016 at 8:37 AM

      Thanks Sindhu. It is tricky and confusing.

      Delete

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